Final report-Vulnerability-PUENTES-2012-3

Alternative technologies to reduce the gap in the ”lean month” in livelihoods of small coffee producers in Central America in the face of climate change

Summary

The BRIDGES project was funded by Green Mountain Coffee Roaster Ltd. (GMCR) and conducted by Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in collaboration with the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT). Within the framework of this project, the impact of climate change on coffee smallholders’ livelihoods was evaluated and alternatives for their families and related organizations and institutions were identified.

The objectives of the research were to determine the climatic suitability for coffee growing (Coffee Arabica) and other potential crops as alternatives for diversification at the local level. Further objectives were to assess the vulnerability of Central American smallholder coffee farmers’ and their families’ livelihoods to climate change, and to establish an inventory of agricultural technologies for coffee families in Nicaragua.

In order to identify the exposure, climate change was modeled using current and future (2050) climate data as input for a crop suitability model (Läderach et al., 2010). Current climate data is based on historical register of meteorological stations (www.worldclim.org). Future climate change predictions were taken from 20 Global Circulation Models recommended by the IPCC. The data of the current climate and of climate change was used as input for MaxEnt (Phillips et al., 2006), a crop prediction model used for modeling coffee suitability and EcoCrop (Hijmans et al., 2005b) used for suitability modeling of other relevant crops. The evidence data used for MaxEnt was collected using Global Positioning Systems. The methodology and results of current and future suitability are published in the final report of “Escenarios del Impacto del Clima Futuro en Areas de Cultivo de Café en Nicaragua, El Salvador and Guatemala” (www.ciat.org).

The methodology to identify the vulnerability to climate change was based on the integrated assessment model of the IPCC third assessment report (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001), where vulnerability is defined as “a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity” (IPCC, 2007). Exposition was represented by the change in suitability up to 2050. Sensitivity was represented by 9 indicators and adaptive capacity by 11 indicators (Baca et al., 2011) based on the sustainable livelihood approach (DFID, 1999).

Agricultural technologies for the main crops cultivated by the coffee farmers were identified by means of a literature review, expert knowledge, farm visits and participatory workshops with technicians and producers in Nicaragua.

According to the prediction of the MaxEnt model, suitability of coffee growing regions in Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador will be reduced towards 2050, with the highest decrease in El Salvador. However, suitability was not predicted to decrease in all coffee growing regions. Furthermore, farms located at lower altitudes (600 – 1000 masl) will have a higher decrease in suitability, while in growing regions at higher altitudes (1200 – 1800) suitability will increase.

Other potential crops such as corn, beans, citrus, tomatoes, bananas, cocoa, avocado, mango or sorghum will gain, loose or maintain suitability by 2050. Depending on the geographic location and the local environmental conditions, the family farms will have alternatives to diversify their system and change their crops.

High vulnerability was identified in 6% of families in Nicaragua, 55% of families in El Salvador and 24% of families in Guatemala.  In Honduras, families did not have high vulnerability.  In general, families have high vulnerability when their farms are located in areas where coffee will lose suitability by 2050, are highly or moderately sensitive to the variability of coffee production, and have low adaptive capacity for viability of post-harvest infrastructure through forms of drying. When families showed high variability in coffee production, their annual income was reduced and some families reduced their daily diet.  In other cases, some members of the household migrated to other regions of the country to look for work and improve household income. Additionally, the lack of infrastructure for post-harvest drying diminishes coffee quality in areas with high humidity and oftentimes families decide to sell the berries or wet parchment to avoid deteriorating the coffee, thus reducing their annual income.

Identified agricultural technologies included practices that have been in use for 20 years and some practices that have been introduced with the adoption of organic production systems. In traditional coffee plantations plant densities were lower, but productivity was still good. Furthermore, there were only few problems of pests and diseases. Today, the tall-growing varieties such as Typica and Bourbon have been replaced by low-growing varieties, mainly Caturra, and pests and diseases have to be treated with pesticides.

Today´s coffee plantations are agroforestry systems with native and introduced tree species providing shadow. In traditional farming systems, biodiversity of native and introduced species is still maintained, in contrast to commercial cropping system where the incorporated trees are of only one species (usually Inga spp).

The assessment of climatic suitability to grow coffee and alternative crops, the vulnerability analysis and the identification of valuable agricultural practices allows for an understanding of the differences of observed livelihoods and in the management of production systems in every region. It is necessary to appropriately apply the developed management strategies in order to reduce negative impacts caused by variations in annual coffee yields and climate change.

In regions where coffee will lose suitability, it is essential to consider alternative crops for diversification, in order to ensure the sustainability of production systems and food security of families. However new crops and varieties to be implemented in the future need to be selected in accordance with available resources of families, their geographical location and the cost-benefit ratio, to achieve the adoption of the new system and in order to benefit the families.

By clicking on the figures you can download attachments (Haciendo clic en las figuras usted podrá descargar los anexos).

Anexo 1. Inventario de tecnologias agrícolas

Anexo 2. Prácticas agronómicas caficultores

By Eric Rahn and Alessandro Craparo

This week scientists from the International Centre of Tropical Agriculture (CIAT www.ciat.cgiar.org), the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA www.iita.org), the University of Göttingen (UGOE www.uni-goettingen.de) together with national coffee and cocoa research partners from Tanzania, Uganda and Ghana: Tanzania Coffee Research Institute (TaCRI http://tacri.org/), Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana (CRIG http://www.cocobod.gh/cocoa_research.php), National Coffee Research Institute of Uganda (NaCORI http://www.nacrri.go.ug/) and development partners, Hanns R. Neumann Stiftung http://www.hrnstiftung.org/ and the Agro-Eco Louis Bolk Institute http://www.louisbolk.org/africa/about-us met for a kick-off meeting in Nairobi, Kenya. This was for the launch of the project of trade-offs and synergies in climate change adaptation and mitigation in coffee and cocoa systems funded by the Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung (BMZ).

This new project initiated by Drs. Piet van Asten (IITA) and Peter Läderach (CIAT) brings novel research with the goal of adapting vulnerable coffee/cocoa based farming systems to climate change that combine improving farmer income and system resilience with contributing to climate change mitigation.

Cocoa and coffee are two perennial crops that are very sensitive to climate change and variability. In turn, these two tropical crops are the primary source of income for millions of African smallholder farmers and are key foreign revenue generators for much of the East African highlands and the humid areas of West and Central Africa. In Africa, both crops are cultivated in low and high input monocrop systems, as well as in diversified agroforestry systems. The latter systems have a high potential for increasing resilience of smallholder livelihoods as well as for climate change adaptation and mitigation and the conservation of biodiversity and other ecosystem services. On the other hand, these systems may result in lower yields therefore requiring larger production areas in forest margins. As such, low yielding tree crop production systems are amongst the major drivers of deforestation in the humid tropics.

The two-day workshop brought together the various partners in order to discuss existing projects in the region and the way forward. Based on these projects and using climate suitability modelling and participatory mapping by CIAT and national partners, focus areas were selected for the project. These included the south eastern slopes of Mt. Kilimanjaro in Tanzania and the Western slope of Mt. Elgon in Uganda for coffee over various altitudes. While for cocoa, a transect of sites were selected running from southwest to the central region of northern Ghana.

The project will develop a methodological framework for coffee/cocoa stakeholders and a dissemination toolbox in which to deliver the results in a format suitable to small-holder farmers. There is a strong focus on gender dynamics in these systems and climate-smart technologies. The project will foster four PhD students under the supervision of the institutes and UGOE which will be analysing the dynamics of these systems along the transect gradients.

A Unique Opportunity for Knowledge Sharing: Lushoto CCAFS Benchmark Site

Bringing together the scientists from the National Agricultural Institutes, District-level Extension
Agents, Farmers and International Research Scientists to discuss appropriate Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for the CCAFS Benchmark site: Lushoto, Tanzania provided a unique opportunity for increased knowledge sharing among many stakeholders.

As part of the CCAFS project Playing out transformative adaptation in CCAFS benchmark sites in East Africa: When, where, how and with whom?, CIAT team (Leigh Winowiecki, Jennifer Twyman, Peter Laderach, Anton Eitzinger and Kelvin Mashisia) co-organized a Data Analysis and Adaptation Strategy Development Workshop in Arusha, Tanzania, from June 4^th to 6^th, 2013 with the Selian Agricultural Research Institute (SARI).

Climate Change in Lushoto

Farmers are already noticing changes in the local climate patterns in Lushoto. The CCAFS baseline survey for Lushoto indicated that 75% of farmers made changes in their land management practices due to erratic rainfall patterns. During the workshop, farmers stated that timing of the onset of the rainy seasons is unpredictable. It is because Lushoto is vulnerable to climate change that our project is using a number of spatially explicit tools to assess crop suitability and crop productivity for the region, under different climate scenarios.

Data Analysis Training

Participants received training in open source data analysis tools such as R statistics and DIVA GIS. With these tools we explored crop suitability of beans across Tanzania and analyzed the variability of soil properties, including the effect of cultivation on soil organic carbon at the Lushoto site! Spatial data layers for Tanzania were shared with all participants, including climate (WorldClim), topography, river networks, administrative districts, land use, among others. Analysis for the soil data indicated that Lushoto has overall low soil organic carbon data in cultivated areas (~15 g C kg^-1).

Participatory Sessions

Participatory sessions were also held to share past experiences, challenges, elements of successful projects, current and past farming practices and more! Feedback sessions on the participatory workshop as well as the gender and socio-economic surveys conducted in Lushoto provided interesting discussions and highlighted additional considerations for the region. The final report of the Lushoto participatory workshop was shared with all participants in both hard and soft copy formats.

Challenges Highlighted and New Ideas Highlighted

Lushoto region has many challenges to overcome; discussions highlighted the unpredictability of rainfall, land fragmentation, low soil fertility, unreliable seed sources, lack of farmer groups, new crop diseases, among others as key challenges to address. We also focused on solutions and creative ideas including: more farmer field days and more demonstration farms in each village, creating trust within farmers groups, and making agriculture attractive to the youth.

Next Steps

Several climate change adaptation strategies were suggested for the Lushoto site: including engaging community groups to build terraces (matuta ya ngazi) to stop soil erosion; knowledge sharing on best practices for composting farm yard manure for application on the farm to increase soil organic matter; working with the national tree planting program; providing input on contour planting; increasing awareness on zero-grazing; introducing leguminous cover crops to improve soil health and reduce erosion; among others. Increased knowledge sharing between researchers, farmers and extension agents was highlighted as an important activity.

Workshop summary (by Leigh Winowiecki)

DIVA GIS – Ecocrop manual

Analyzing LDSF – R manual

Artist interpretation of Impacts World panel discussion on adaptation policy

From May 27th to 30th the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis co-hosted the International Conference on Climate Change Effects in Potsdam Germany. Termed the first scientific conference on climate change impacts it brought together world leading scientists to discuss the state of the art. Of course, DAPA couldn’t miss such a great opportunity and joined the 360 attendees.

The conference was held within the AgMIP and ISI-MIP model intercomparison projects. These projects brought together some of the most seasoned impacts modelers to systematically compare and apply a diverse set of models. At the conference the results were shared with the prominent audience and discussed controversially. Throughout the conference one got the feeling that this could be a defining moment for impacts science. The discussions could not have been more intense, nor at a higher level.

Not only was the stated goal of the conference – to create an interdisciplinary forum to discuss the future agenda of climate impacts research – fully achieved, but the strengths and weaknesses of the current modeling approaches were revealed, thus laying a foundation towards better science. The intercomparison projects showed model strengths in agreeing on the quality of impacts of temperature and precipitation changes, but disagreed on the effect of CO2 fertilization. Taken together it was confirmed what every good modeler knows: Increasing model complexity also increases model uncertainty. We must therefore design problem specific models, identify key interactions first and do not embark on futile efforts to create a perfect world system model.

We at DAPA are therefore confident that we are on a good way forward. Smart – not overly complex – models are what we have always been doing, enabling us to give robust recommendations to policy makers. Nevertheless, as Joseph Alcamo, chief scientist at UNEP, put it: “Do we know enough to act? Yes, but we need to know more to act well.”

The organizers are working on a peer-reviewed proceedings which can be accessed here.

DAPA’s contribution “The utility of an agro-ecological niche model of coffee production for future change scenarios” can be read here.

Further impressions on Flickr, and a great speech by Rachel Kyte, World Bank on Youtube.

The Decision and Policy Analysis (DAPA) research area is currently conducting a climate change study commissioned by Catholic Relief Services (CRS) that aims to predict the current potential distribution and quantify the impact of progressive climate change on coffee and mango production in Haiti. Last week CIAT climate change experts Anton Eitzinger and Peter Laderach visited coffee and mango farmers, agricultural experts and ministries to share and discuss first results. A further aim of the visit was to gain insights into production constraints farmers are facing in the south-western part of the Caribbean island and validate the results of initial modeling and crop-climate-suitability maps.

The results of the model show that coffee will move up in altitude. Farmers confirmed that coffee trees in lower areas and without shade protection disappeared during the last decades. CIAT climate change expert Peter Laderach explained that it is very important to develop short-, mid and long-term strategies for coffee farmers to guarantee their livelihoods. He mentioned 3 main strategies for different temporal implementation steps and spatial areas of the islands coffee production. First, areas were suitability of coffee will decrease but will still be suitable in the future, adaptation strategies like using drought and high temperature resistant varieties and to improve current technologies (for example increased shading, soil conservation, …) are needed for these areas. Secondly, areas where coffee will grow better in the future, in these areas expansions strategies need to be well coordinated with natural conservation efforts. Thirdly, areas where coffee suitability will reduce significantly in the future and diversification options must be developed starting from now on to provide option for farmers’ future livelihoods.

The results of the model show that Mango suitability will increase in many areas of the island due to increased temperature. Farmers also confirmed that mango is doing much better in lower and hotter areas were enough sun is available and that trees in higher altitudes are producing lower quality and are more exposed to diseases. As a strategy to expand exportation of mango, farmers, national institutions and development organizations started in recent years introducing a new variety called “Madame Francis”. Farm associations train farmers now to graft onto existing root stock (e.g. Baptiste variety) in order to achieve reasonable production volume within 5 – 7 years. Currently, the mango association collects the produce from different farmers and sells them through the association (fixed price) to reach the target production volume for exportation. Further, certification and improved technologies (e.g. maintain lower tree height to make harvesting process easier) would increase product value and production efficiency in the future.

Both, farmers of coffee and mangos in the southwest of Haiti are organized in farm associations and can benefit from sharing experience, facilities and logistics in the process to adapt production systems in the future.

The study is following up on a previous assessment of Haitian Coffee and Mango Value Chain done by CIAT in 2010-2011: Assessment of Haitian Mango Value Chain  &  Assessment of Haitian Coffee Value Chain

This first step of raising awareness and make representatives of national institutions sensitive to potential climate change impacts should followed by further activities and joint projects on climate change. CIAT, CRS and national institutions are planning to work closer together in the near future to implement more climate change adaptation and mitigation activities in Haiti.

Many studies have shown the particular vulnerability of coffee to climate change. This is due to its sensitivity to temperature changes and its specific requirements of rainfall patterns (coffee under pressure CUP, Mesoamerican Coffee policy brief). Furthermore, its perennial nature makes it very difficult for farmers to adapt to changes in market conditions or the environment, since investments in coffee production today may not come to fruition until 10-15 years later. Therefore, adaptation strategies are crucial and have to be carefully planned. Considering that more than 70% of all coffee producers worldwide are smallholding farmers growing on lots smaller than 10 hectares each, the question arises how this transition will occur when no resources are available to them? While adaptation to climate change is unavoidable, continued efforts for mitigating climate change, i.e. reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the first place and/or sequestering CO2 in vegetation, soil, or other medias, is critical. Governments and companies worldwide are investing a lot of money in mitigating the greenhouse gases related to economic activities.

Recently, the focus of many research activities has been directed to investigating the relationships between adaptation and mitigation. The interest in agriculture is straightforward. Agriculture is one of the major emitters of greenhouse gases and at the same time one of the most affected by climate change. Synergies between adaptation and mitigation have been found particularly evident in agroforestry systems (e.g. coffee, cocoa, livestock). Shade trees can buffer climate extremes (e.g. heavy winds, rainfall, etc.) and temperature increases while at the same time sequester carbon. Furthermore, agroforestry systems compared to systems without incorporating trees, contribute to additional ecosystem services such as biodiversity, and are thought to improve livelihood benefits (e.g. fruits and firewood from shade trees). But, although this seems very promising, relevant trade-offs are present which often hinder the adoption of such systems. Trade-offs might arise on the farm scale through lower productivity with increasing tree incorporation. On a landscape scale, trade-offs can be related to carbon sequestration; if agroforestry systems are implemented on the cost of forests, net carbon sequestration might be negative.

A newly published study (Rahn et al. 2013) developed a first approach to identifying synergies between adaptation, mitigation and livelihood benefits in coffee production in Northern Nicaragua. Collaboration between different relevant stakeholders (private sector, certification bodies, NGO’s, research, coffee farmers and cooperatives) aimed at identifying practices and strategies to enable a sustainable transition for smallholders to adapt to climate change. Furthermore possibilities were explored to provide the needed resources directly from within the supply chain with mutual benefits for everyone involved (PB shared value). There seems to be a lot of optimism although in practice there are still many issues to be clarified. There is a need to fully understand all related trade-offs and synergies. For this purpose, a methodological framework is needed that considers all relevant factors on different scales and enables a user-friendly evaluation for the private sector and certification bodies interested in climate-smart agricultural production.

Therefore, different master thesis are currently conducted on this topic and a big research project by the International Institute of Tropical Agriculture (IITA) and the Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) (3 Phd sub-projects) on identifying production technologies enabling adaptation of vulnerable coffee/cocoa-based farming systems to climate change that combine improving farmer income and system resilience with contributing to climate change mitigation is in its starting phase. The aim is to contribute to filling the research gaps described above. This is to better understand trade-offs and synergies between climate change adaptation, mitigation and livelihood needs and provide stakeholders with a methodological framework to assess the potential of various production technologies. The project will be conducted in four different countries of West and East Africa.

Since our last blog  in September 2012,  the cassava Crop Model Improvement Team (CMIT), which is led by CIAT,  has been working on the improvement of the model. Aspects we are changing are the control of leaf size by photothermal time, crop branching, and nitrogen distribution, among others.  Last month, April 2013, we released an updated version of the  model, which will be part of the new DSSAT  v4.6 and will also be included in APSIM.

Cassava CMIT Team in the last meeting in April

But still there are many things to do. The Team has the long-term goal to provide the cassava community with the capability to answer what is likely to happen if they follow a particular course of action.  Our overall objective is to develop a model that accurately simulates cassava growth and yield under a wide range of climate, soil, genetic, and management conditions, some of which currently do not exist. People interested in cassava include policy makers, the private sector, cassava growers, and the research community.

Individuals or organizations who demonstrate that they can contribute knowledge, data, programming skills, or make other contribution to the development of an effective cassava model are invited to join the cassava CMIT.

For more information click here

Related post: Rethinking a cassava crop model

Figure 1. Simulation of harvest yield of cassava variety MCol-1684 with the original DSSAT sub-model (top) and the current version as revised in April, 2013 to take account of leaf size with photothermal time, crop branching, and nitrogen distribution (bottom).

(Versión en Español)

Researchers, funders, and policy makers from 14 Latin American and Caribbean countries, including four researchers from CIAT and CCAFS, participated in a regional workshop on climate change vulnerability organized by the UNEP REGATTA project and IICA (the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture). The objective of the workshop was to share knowledge on the development of climate change vulnerability assessments and tools to assist selection of resilience building adaptation actions. These assessments provide information on the cause of current and future vulnerability and potential impacts of climate change on different sectors, activities, ecosystems, and region.

An important lesson from the workshop was that due to the different political and geographic contexts and interdisciplinary nature of analysis processes, multiple ‘recipes’ for vulnerability assessments are required. Strengthening relationships with government entities was therefore emphasized to ensure that these assessments provide practical information matching the specific realities and needs of decision-makers across the region. Furthermore, there is a need for research on the models that could help predict future economic and social conditions.

Vulnerability of the Andes

The REGATTA project is initiating four climate change vulnerability and impact assessments in different regions in Latin America and the Caribbean. The first assessment is being led by CIAT, which covers the Andes of Colombia, Ecuador and Peru. CIAT shared the experiences and advances of the analyses and demonstrated the process used to define the ‘vulnerability index,’ integrating exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity in the assessment. This was done using case study examples related to crops from each country to show how crop representation in study countries and socioeconomic factors that influence these processes were included.

Emphasis was placed on the importance of having a clear use for these types of studies from the beginning and creating them for practical application to government decision-making. To do this, CIAT has engaged actors in relevant ongoing initiatives in each study country in the process of reviewing analyses.

The CIAT led Andean Community of Practice (CoP-Andes), was presented along with the comprehensive communications strategy for the project. National authorities are being involved in virtual events and discussion forums, and an online library of documents and videos is being constructed to provide public access to all information derived from the study.

Tools for adaptation planning

Technical tools developed externally from the project were also shared through interactive seminars. CIAT shared lessons learned from applying a new CCAFS community-based adaptation planning framework in East and West Africa and Southeast Asia. The Participatory Social Return on Investment (PSROI) framework is a model for integrating community perceptions on climate change adaptation priorities and costs and benefits into planning adaptation projects. These lessons could serve as an example for establishing community input into planning processes in Latin American and the Caribbean, where CCAFS has recently opened a new regional office.

Presentation of PSROI stimulated discussion on how to include social, environmental, and economic costs and benefits in assessments of adaptation projects and what problems to be aware of. A general agreement was that simple versions of assessment processes are needed to allow governments and project developers to efficiently capture funds to support locally appropriate adaptation activities. Further discussion followed on how all of the externally developed tools presented can complement the vulnerability study results and help in assessing, planning, and implementing climate change adaptation actions.

(c) Neil Palmer, CIAT

The main challenge concerning vulnerability assessment methodologies is that each regional study found it necessary to develop its own, based on the system, the information available, and what was needed by decision makers. More information is needed by decision-makers, practitioners, and researchers on how, when, and in what combination to apply these methods in different situations.

Workshop output

For this reason the UNEP regional office for Latin America and the Caribbean is developing a best practices manual for assessing vulnerability, impacts, and adaptation to climate change as an outcome of the workshop, which CIAT and CCAFS will contribute to.

This manual will be useful to for government officials or practitioners that need to use results from vulnerability assessments or conduct their own to guide climate change planning. It will also be useful to researchers aiming to further develop methodologies.

Authors: Caitlin Corner-Dolloff, Flávia Cunha, Antonio Pantoja, Jeimar Tapasco, Manon Koningstein and Jhon Brayan Valencia.

The “Regional workshop for the exchange of experiences related to climate change vulnerability in Latin America and the Caribbean,” which took place from April 23-25 in Panama City, was organized by the UNEP REGATTA project (Plataforma Regional para la Innovación y la Transferencia de Tecnología para Cambio Climático/Regional Platform for Innovation and Technology Transfer for Climate Change) and IICA. Additional workshop materials and presentations are available online.

For further information on the “Center of Knowledge for Vulnerability and Impact Assessment of Climate Change on the Andes in Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru” component of the REGATTA project:

Contact:

• Jeimar Tapasco (j.tapasco@cgiar.org), Project Leader
• Flávia Cunha (cunha.flavia@gmail.com), Facilitator of the Andean Community of Practice and a representative of CIAT’s Capacity Strengthening and Knowledge Management Initiative

View related posts:

• Vulnerability assessment results (Spanish)
• Project initiation and description (Spanish)

For further information on the Participatory Social Return on Investment framework:

Contact Caitlin Corner-Dolloff (c.corner-dolloff@cgiar.org), PSROI Project Leader for CIAT.

Additional tools presented by other organizations at the workshop include:

• Quick Scan by Manuel Winograd, Community Participatory Scenario Planning and additional community assessment tools by CARE, ArcSWAT by CATHALAC, CRiSTAL by IUCN, and methods for measuring adaptive capacity developed by CATIE.

The International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) engages in science to cultivate change and is a member of the CGIAR consortium. The CGIAR research program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS) addresses the increasing challenge of global warming and declining food security on agricultural practices, policies and measures.

(English Version)

Los investigadores, donantes y tomadores de decisiones de 14 países en américa latina y el caribe, entre ellos cuatro investigadores del CIAT y CCAFS, participaron en un taller regional sobre la vulnerabilidad del cambio climático, organizado por el proyecto REGATTA PNUMA y el IICA (Instituto Interamericano de Cooperación para la Agricultura). El objetivo del taller fue compartir conocimientos sobre el desarrollo de las evaluaciones de la vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y las herramientas para ayudar a la selección de las medidas de adaptación para el fortalecimiento de la resilencia. Estas evaluaciones proporcionan información sobre la causa de la vulnerabilidad actual y futura, también los impactos potenciales del cambio climático en diferentes sectores, actividades, ecosistemas y regiones.

Una lección importante del taller fue saber que los diferentes contextos políticos y geográficos, requieren distintas estrategias para la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad. Por lo tanto, las relaciones con las entidades gubernamentales son importantes, toda vez que se debe asegurar que las evaluaciones corresponden a la realidad de los tomadores de decisiones y a las necesidades específicas de la región. Además, es importante desarrollar  modelos que podrían ayudar a predecir futuras condiciones económicas y sociales.

Vulnerabilidad de los Andes

El programa REGATTA está liderando cuatro proyectos de vulnerabilidad al cambio climático y evaluación del impacto en las diferentes regiones de América Latina y el Caribe. CIAT está liderando el proyecto correspondiente a los Andes de Colombia, Ecuador y Perú. El rol de CIAT fue compartir las experiencias y avances de los análisis, mostrando el proceso utilizado para definir el “índice de vulnerabilidad”, integrando la exposición, sensibilidad y capacidad de adaptación en la evaluación. Esto se hizo mediante estudios de caso relacionados con los cultivos de cada país,  y los índices socioeconómicos que se incluyeron en el proceso.

Se hizo énfasis en clarificar los alcances del estudio, así mismo en usar de manera cautelosa este tipo de estudios. Se compartió con el auditorio la experiencia obtenida tras invitar a distintos actores gubernamentales que ahora están verificando la metodología y los resultados que se están obteniendo.

Al público asistente se le dio a conocer que el CIAT lidera la  Comunidad de Práctica Andes (CoP-Andes), la cual se presentó junto con la estrategia integral de comunicaciones para el proyecto. Iniciativa donde las autoridades nacionales están participando mediante eventos virtuales, foros de discusión, y una biblioteca de documentos y videos que se está construyendo para dar acceso público a toda la información derivada del estudio.

Herramientas para la planificación de la adaptación

El CIAT compartió lecciones aprendidas desde la aplicación de un nuevo plan de adaptación basado comunidades del CCAFS en el marco del Este y Oeste Africano y el Sudeste Asiático. El Retorno Social de la Inversión Participativa marco (PSROI, por sus siglas en inglés), es un modelo para la integración de las percepciones de la comunidad sobre la adaptación al cambio climático, prioridades, costos y beneficios en la planificación de proyectos de adaptación. Estas lecciones podrían servir de ejemplo para la creación de opiniones de la comunidad en los procesos de América Latina y el Caribe, donde CCAFS ha abierto recientemente una nueva oficina regional de planificación.

(c) Neil Palmer, CIAT

Presentación de PSROI estimuló la discusión sobre la manera de incluir los costos sociales, ambientales y económicos y los beneficios en la evaluación de proyectos de adaptación y qué tipos de peligros acarrean. Un acuerdo general fue que se necesitan versiones sencillas de modelos para que los gobiernos y desarrolladores de proyectos dirijan de manera eficiente los fondos económicos para apoyar las actividades de adaptación local. Además se discutió sobre la manera como estas herramientas pueden complementar los resultados de los estudios de vulnerabilidad y ayudar en la evaluación, planificación e implementación de acciones frente al cambio climático.

Resultados del Taller

Por esta razón, la Oficina Regional del PNUMA para América Latina y el Caribe está desarrollando un manual de mejores prácticas para la evaluación de la vulnerabilidad, impactos y adaptación al cambio climático, en el cual CIAT y CCAFS seguirán contribuyendo.

Este manual será de utilidad para los funcionarios gubernamentales o profesionales que necesitan utilizar los resultados de las evaluaciones de vulnerabilidad o realizar su propia planificación para orientarla dentro de la temática del cambio climático. También será útil para los investigadores con el objetivo de desarrollar metodologías.

_________________________________________________________________________________

Autores: Caitlin Corner-Dolloff, Flávia Cunha, Antonio Pantoja, Jeimar Tapasco, Manon Koningstein y Jhon Brayan Valencia. 

Este taller fue organizado por el proyecto REGATTA del PNUMA (Plataforma Regional Para La Innovación y la Transferencia de Tecnología para Cambio Climático) y el IICA. Material de los talleres adicionales y presentaciones están disponibles en línea. Se llevó a cabo del 23 a 25 abril en la Ciudad de Panamá.

Para más información sobre el “Centro de Conocimiento para la Vulnerabilidad y Evaluación del Impacto del Cambio Climático en los Andes en Colombia, Ecuador y Perú”  visite:

• Los resultados de la evaluación de vulnerabilidad (Español)
• Proyecto de iniciación y descripción (Español)

Contactos:

• Jeimar Tapasco (j.tapasco@cgiar.org), Líder del Proyecto
• Flávia Cunha (cunha.flavia@gmail.com), facilitador de la Comunidad de Práctica andes y un representante de Fortalecimiento de Capacidades del CIAT y la Iniciativa de Gestión del Conocimiento

Para más información sobre el Retorno Social de la Inversión Participativa marco:
Contacto Caitlin Corner-Dolloff(c.corner-dolloff@cgiar.org), PSROI Líder del Proyecto para el CIAT.

Herramientas adicionales presentadas por otras organizaciones en el taller son:

• Análisis rápido por Manuel Winograd, Comunidad de Planificación Participativa de escenarios y otras herramientas de evaluación de la comunidad por CARE, ArcSWAT por CATHALAC, Cristal de la UICN, y los métodos para medir la capacidad de adaptación desarrollado por el CATIE.

El Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT) se dedica a la ciencia de cultivar el cambio y es miembro del Consorcio CGIAR. El programa de investigación del CGIAR sobre Cambio Climático, Agricultura y Seguridad Alimentaria (CCAFS) aborda el creciente desafío del calentamiento global y la disminución de la seguridad alimentaria en las prácticas agrícolas, las políticas y medidas.

Information about the weather is crucial for reducing risk in agricultural decision making and creating food security for all. Photo: CIAT

Cross-posted from CCAFS, by Philip Thornton

Since becoming available in June 2011, the on-line and stand-alone versions of the MarkSim GCM stochastic weather generator tool have been widely tested. A few problems were found, which have now been corrected. Both versions of the tool can be used to generate daily data that are characteristic of current conditions, based on the WorldClim dataset, an interpolated surface of weather station data from around the world mostly covering the years 1960-1990.

One version of the tool can be accessed here, in a Google Earth user interface. An alternative version of the tool, which can be run via user-written scripts or calling programmes can be accessed here, along with detailed documentation.

MarkSim GCM is currently being updated with more recent climate model outputs, from the IPCC’s CMIP5 archive.

MarkSim GCM was developed by Waen Associates with CCAFS support, in cooperation with CIAT, ILRI, IFPRI, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, HarvestChoice and the University of Oxford.

Read more:

Weather generator tool helps agronomists assess climate risks

Future Weather Generating Tool Updated