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Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area – DAPA

DAPA researchers join CGIAR-CSI on Climate Change

DAPA researchers and partners joined their colleagues in the CGIAR-CSI in a special session on climate change adaptation and mitigation at the 2011 ESRI International User conference. Abstracts and presentations follow:

Climate Change in the Subtropics: The Impacts on Banana Productivity
by J. Ramirez, D. Turner, I. Van den Bergh, C. Staver, D. Brown and A. Jarvis

The potential for bananas to produce year round is best expressed when water is abundant and daily temperatures are in the range of 20-30°C. Zones with these conditions produce fruit for the global market. However, banana production, mainly for national markets, has developed in many subtropical areas under less than optimum conditions. In these regions, bananas are subject to sub-optimum temperatures and short days. The effects of climate change on selected subtropical production areas were modeled in a two-step procedure using the EcoCrop model, under current growing conditions and for 2020 and 2050 using a set of 19 IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Global Climate Models (GCMs) under the SRES-A2 (business as usual) emission scenario. The modeling showed that current suitability for banana production in the subtropics is much lower than in the tropics with great variation in suitability within the subtropics.

Evaluating performance of agricultural technology: a database for adaptation planning
by Glenn Hyman and Ernesto Giron

Under climate change, farmers will have to adapt to higher temperatures and generally more variable weather, including the possibility of more droughts and more flooding. Global food security will in large part depend on how well they adapt to these changes. However, it is not clear how actors in the food chain will develop systems to adapt to climate change. One way to support adaptation planning is to analyze agricultural technology in places today that might be similar to future environments under climate change. Agricultural technologies that are currently adapted to heat, drought, excess water or pests and diseases associated with severe climate can be targeted to regions that are likely to suffer most from climate change. This project created a global database for evaluating the performance of agricultural technology at sites across the world. We show how this database can be used for modeling future adaptation to climate change.

Web Tools for REDD monitoring and planning
by Ernesto Giron and Glenn Hyman

The International agreements to address climate change have sparked great interest in programs to reduce emissions from deforestation, forest degradation and other land-use changes. The development of these programs requires some technical expertise for analyzing land-use change and for assessing the economics of any program to reduce emissions. Expanding capacities to evaluate projects and programs can advance the overall effort to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. We developed a tool for visualizing and querying results from MODIS imagery and phenological analysis to calculate measures of deforestation for user defined areas. An application was also developed to allow users to easily estimate the opportunity cost of avoided deforestation. These web applications were developed in ArcGIS Server Advanced using Spatial Extension, geoprocessing tools advantages for coding a big part of the workflow with python programming language, and we also used ArcGIS API for Flex integrated with Google Maps capabilities to build dynamic RIAs.

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