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Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area – DAPA

DAPA showcases research on climate change, agriculture and Colombia

On Monday 8th February we were honoured to host a meeting of the Inter-Institutional network on climate change and food security for Colombia.  We took advantage of the meeting to showcase some of the research going on in DAPA related to downscaling of climate projections for the future, and the research we’re doing on quantifying the expected impacts on agriculture and associated ecosystem services.  The keynote of the morning was dedicated to our downscaling work, where we are trialling some five methodologies to get from big fat GCM grids into smaller cells which are far more relevant for examining impacts in agriculture.  We’re experimenting with empirical downscaling, and have 3 methods that we’ve trialled (including the one used to generate our downscaled GCM projections from the website).  We’re also running the PRECIS Regional Climate Model (RCM) for the northern Andes, although we’re just getting going with that.  The final method is the simplest: disaggregation.  Julian Ramirez made the presentation, and you can see it (in spanish) here:

That was followed by short and snappy presentations on some aspects of the use of these projections to examine likely impacts on agriculture.  All the presentations are available:

We spent the afternoon discussing and drafting a CONPES policy document for Colombia, and we’re now working on the text.  We also discussed the profound impacts that El Nino is having on the agricultural sector in Colombia right now, with many regions suffering massive water deficits over the past 6 months.  The conclusion is that we need to prepare earlier, and we need agro-meteorological information to flow more efficiently between institutions.  Not a problem exclusive to Colombia, and something I am sure the IPCC are learning the hard way…

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