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Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area – DAPA

Future Climate Scenarios for Kenya’s Tea Growing Areas

Tea farmers in Kenya are at risk of having their livelihoods seriously disrupted as a result of the adverse effects of climate change. As a result the Ethical Tea Partnership (ETP) and German International Corporation (GIZ) have partnered with CIAT to identify potential solutions to this problem. The aim of this project is to identify future climatic change and forecast their projected impacts on local tea farmers.Basket of Tea

Analysis of our data revealed that future climatic suitability for some of the major tea growing areas in Kenya will decline significantly by 2020 and even more so by 2050. Climatic suitability, however, will also increase in some areas and remain constant in others. Overall, the impacts will be highly localized and is likely to require site-specific adaptation strategies.
In a bid to develop these adaptation strategies, DAPA has examined the suitability of alternative crops for these areas under future climatic conditions. Alternative site that will be more climatically suitable have also been identified and the feasibility of such options have been documented. Sites that will maintain suitability will require farmers to adapt their agronomic management to maximize efficiency under the new climatic conditions of the area. Overall, this projects seek to inform policy decisions that will make the farmers agricultural practices more environmentally and economically sustainable. Full report can be viewed here.

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