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Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area – DAPA

State of art in climate change and agriculture published

We’re proud to announce the publication of a book chapter review of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture globally.  The chapter is in a book just released entitled “Climate change and crop production”, edited by Matthew Reynolds from our sister centre CIMMYT.
Unfortunately, we can’t make the chapter available in pdf form, but i think we can at least give you a taster by pasting in the abstract to this post:
Chapter 2 – Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture
Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Ben Anderson, Christoph Leibing and Pramod K Aggarwal
This chapter provides an overview of global climate models and their predictions for climate through the 21st Century. The review examines the scientific basis of global climate modelling, including the bases for uncertainty in future climate projections.  A summary of SRES emissions scenarios is also provided.  The current scientific knowledge on climate change points to increases in temperature of 1–3oC to 2050 combined with some complex spatially explicit changes in rainfall. There remains high uncertainty in predictions of extreme events, especially hurricanes.  The chapter then looks at the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, pest and disease prevalence, and CO2-based fertilisation. The impacts on crop productivity are likely to be negative. Whilst moderate increases in temperature may bring about moderate increases in productivity, beyond 1oC of warming the literature tends to agree that impacts will be negative. However, possible CO2 fertilisation effects may cancel out these losses, although significant debate exists as to the extent of CO2 fertilisation to expect. Whilst most literature predict increases in the prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, only a handful of studies have quantified possible impacts and further research is needed in this area.
Those interested in getting a copy of the book, there is a pdf flyer available here with a summary of contents, and instructions for purchasing direct from CABi.

We’re proud to announce the publication of a book chapter review of the likely impacts of climate change on agriculture globally.  The chapter is in a book just released entitled “Climate change and crop production”, edited by Matthew Reynolds from our sister centre CIMMYT.

Unfortunately, we can’t make the chapter available in pdf form, but i think we can at least give you a taster by pasting in the abstract to this post:

Chapter 2 – Scenarios of climate change within the context of agriculture

Andy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez, Ben Anderson, Christoph Leibing and Pramod K Aggarwal

This chapter provides an overview of global climate models and their predictions for climate through the 21st Century. The review examines the scientific basis of global climate modelling, including the bases for uncertainty in future climate projections.  A summary of SRES emissions scenarios is also provided.  The current scientific knowledge on climate change points to increases in temperature of 1–3oC to 2050 combined with some complex spatially explicit changes in rainfall. There remains high uncertainty in predictions of extreme events, especially hurricanes.  The chapter then looks at the likely impacts of climate change on agricultural productivity, pest and disease prevalence, and CO2-based fertilisation. The impacts on crop productivity are likely to be negative. Whilst moderate increases in temperature may bring about moderate increases in productivity, beyond 1oC of warming the literature tends to agree that impacts will be negative. However, possible CO2 fertilisation effects may cancel out these losses, although significant debate exists as to the extent of CO2 fertilisation to expect. Whilst most literature predict increases in the prevalence of agricultural pests and diseases, only a handful of studies have quantified possible impacts and further research is needed in this area.

Those interested in getting a copy of the book, there is a pdf flyer available here with a summary of contents, and instructions for purchasing direct from CABi.

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