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Decision and Policy Analysis Research Area – DAPA

The Economic Impacts of Climate Change, now online

Following a recent blogpost by our colleagues of the Markets and Supply Chains Research,there’s a visualisation tool where all the economic indicators of agricultural production can be displayed and analysed as both charts and maps. Production for food, feed and biofuel are taken into account, as well as trade, population growth, per capita income and calories consumption. Here’s an example graph with total rice production in India (blue line) and China (red line):

Rice future production

That’s under a somehow mitigative, but neither pesimistic nor optimistic emission scenario. Interestingly, they predict China’s rice production decreasing almost in the same percentage that India’s rice production is increasing. Both populations are assumed to keep growing in this scenario, though China’s starts decreasing around 2030 and onwards at an impressive rate of 1.44 million inhabitants per year. In addition, they predict demand for rice in general to decrease substantially from 2010 and onwards. Really interesting bullets can be drawn from this tool, though particular attention needs to be paid to the trends that have been historically observed (I was not able to find a 20th century simulation over their site) as part of a self-validation and assessment of these results.

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